The trade war that is between the United States and China and that the US started with China in 2018 has been one of the significant economic conflicts of this century so far. It turned out to be the situation where the tit-for-tat game with tariff actions, limitations, and countermeasures between the two largest economies of the world has ruined the triggered them all around the world, thus compounding impacts like global supply chains to national economies. Among the various sectors, such as manufacturing, agriculture has been a particularly important one. India, as a leading global producer and exporter of crops, has sensed the effect of the US-China trade war in a rather complicated way. Despite the fact that there were some pluses and minuses, India’s farming business was faced with new issues associated with a changing global trade environment.
The Current State of the US-China Trade War
The US-China trade war began in 2018 when the Trump administration imposed tariffs on China’s goods, leading to a slowdown in trade and scaring global markets. In 2025, the disagreement escalated with a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, resulting in China levying its own tariffs on US key exports like liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and agricultural machinery. China also banned US tech companies like Google and punished others through its Unreliable Entity List. The conflict has created a sense of disturbance among world markets, with countries like India being the most victimized. The agricultural sector has been the worst victim, with both the US and China being the world’s largest agricultural producers and exporters. The upheavals caused by tariff imposition have fallen into their postal slipstream. The US is the world’s largest producer and exporter of agricultural products, including soybeans, corn, cotton, and meat. China, the top soybean importer, has been most exposed due to American countermeasures. The US saw a decline of over 50% in soybean trade to China during July-October 2020, as China started buying soybeans from Brazil and Argentina more often. The competing response from China, which entered new tariffs on pork, cotton, and nuts, did not calm the market down. The US pork sector, a major supplier to China, suffered multiple injuries from the Chinese tariffs. As a result, the US abandoned the market, while China resorted to alternate countries like Canada and the European Union to buy pork, leading to drastic changes in global meat trading pathways. Price fluctuations and market instability are also caused by the inner nation trade problems between the US and China. The tit-for-tat game between raising and making each other’s tariffs on various goods has led to wildly shifting prices of certain food items. For example, when the US hit China with tariffs, the US’s soybeans fell in quantity and price, while Brazil’s soybeans experienced increased demand and cost. Farmers in India who produce crops that had been shipped to China’s market, such as fruits and vegetables, must now find new buyers or they will suffer lower prices. In addition, personal factors like not enough storage and transportation infrastructure, which are the areas that add to challenges met by Indian exporters who are seeking to win new contracts, are a top problem. India’s farming industry is also being swayed by worldwide geopolitical conflicts and by trade agreements. To oppose the US-China trade dispute, countries such as India are working to expand their export markets beyond the US and China. So the country is pretty much involved in forming close trade relations with the European Union, Russia, and Southeast Asia. However, during the process, the country is faced with trade and tariff issues, some of which make it hard for Indian farmers to be productive and effective in global markets.
SOURCE:Ray Dalio, The Great Powers Index 2024
Farmers in India who produce crops that had been shipped to China’s market, such as fruits and vegetables, must now find new buyers or they will suffer lower prices. In addition, personal factors like not enough storage and transportation infrastructure, which are the areas that add to challenges met by Indian exporters who are seeking to win new contracts, are a top problem. India’s farming industry is also being swayed by worldwide geopolitical conflicts and by trade agreements. To oppose the US-China trade dispute, countries such as India are working to expand their export markets beyond the US and China. So the country is pretty much involved in forming close trade relations with the European Union, Russia, and Southeast Asia. However, during the process, the country is faced with trade and tariff issues, some of which make it hard for Indian farmers to be productive and effective in global markets.
Conclusion:
The US-China trade war has impacted the global agricultural trade considerably, which, in turn, has resulted in both problems and prospects for the Indian agriculture sector. One of the advantages obtained by the Indians due to this conflict is the increased exports of some agricultural products such as soybeans and cotton. However, on the other hand, it has also shown the vulnerability of Indian farmers to price volatility and the changing global demand. Henceforth, India should put a special emphasis on the improvement of the infrastructure in agriculture, diversification of export markets, and the development of its competitive edge to a level that will allow it to generate the highest profit from the trade disputes between China and the US.
Sources
https://www.wto.org/